Exactly how predictable is THE FUTURE?
“ Everyday millions of people get relationship and career advice from their daily horoscopes. Other fates are cast by the random selection of tarot cards. Long life can be read in the palm of a hand and good fortune in the leaves of a freshly drunk cup of tea. Crystal balls, candles, coffee grounds and fortune cookies have all been used to give people a leg up on tomorrow…”
Thus began a documentary about Nostradamus on the National Geographic Channel. The desire to predict the future has plagued us throughout our existence. We have tried every means possible – from “reading” bloody animal entrails to charting the motions of stars light years away – to fulfill this desire. However, in all of this we have assumed that it is possible to predict tomorrow sitting here today; but do the laws of nature really allow us to peer forward in time?
In the Newtonian era it was widely believed that if the initial state of all the particles in a system was known, the laws of nature would be able to predict all future states of the particles. The conclusion was that nature was predictable; we could theoretically, have prior knowledge of events. We now live in the quantum era where it is known that nature is inherently unpredictable. Given a set of initial conditions there still remain a myriad of realizable future states. We live in a world of probabilities where even the most absurd of events have finite chances of occurring. A whale could call from the sky tomorrow, although it is admittedly not very likely!
Astrology is claimed by many to be a science. Based on the relative positions of celestial bodies, astrologers give millions of believers advice on their careers, finances and relationships. But how exactly do these celestial bodies affect us? The only two known mediums by which heavenly bodies can affect us are light and gravity. Yet, the motion of people around you and the light of the sun or the ceiling light above your head ensure that any such influences are washed out. So unless there is a third unknown force besides gravity and electromagnetism, the heavens have little to do with the course of our lives.
So if the future in indeed influenced by our actions today and is not set in stone then how do so many “predictions” come true? The answer is simple – they don’t! When an astrologer or seer makes predictions, 9 out of 10 don’t come true. We just always focus on the one that seems eerily accurate. That’s just human nature. To put it another way i’ll paraphrase Stanford Professor Chip Heath:
Ways to become the next Nostradamus:
1. Write a lot. Nostradamus wrote nearly 1000 quatrains (4-lined verses). Chances are something or the other will come true!
2. Be as vague as you can while making specific references. The more leeway there is for interpretation, the higher the chance that something can be interpreted as having being ‘foretold’.
3. Talk about negative aspects such as death and destruction. We love to hear that!
Tempting as it might be to blame the Fates or the heavens for things gone awry, they are apparently not at fault. And disconcerting as it might be the future might just be determined by a series of actions and decisions.
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